Here is my UFC 246 betting odds analysis: First off, I wouldn’t bet on McGregor at these odds. I do favor him to beat Cerrone, but -350 is way too high considering the 14-month layoff and the fact the fight is at 170lbs. When you make a bet you are looking for value, and I don’t see any here. How: UFC Fight Pass, Pay-Per-View, Watch on ESPN+ here! The latest odds for UFC 246 are provided by Unibet NJ and DraftKings Sportsbook. Conor McGregor vs. Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone – Welterweight Division Moneyline. UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy Betting Picks, Odds and Full Fight Card Predictions. Live from the T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada. Main Card Starts: 10.

This weekend’s UFC 246 is a strong bookmaking and betting match. Both the moneyline and prop menu offer different incentives to each side.

The return of Conor “Notorious’ McGregor from a 15-month layoff to battle Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas is more than a battle of high-profile performers, ranked number four and five in the lightweight division.

There are enough questions regarding each fighter — McGregor’s layoff and Cerrone’s history of taxing bouts — to open significant betting variables. Does McGregor, who claims he will make $80 million on this fight because of incentives, still have the hunger? He lost his last bout and has lucrative businesses outside of UFC. Cerrone lost his last two fights but has battled five times during McGregor’s layoff.

To commemorate their scheduled five-round bout, here are five of the best ways to bet UFC 246. This outlook represents methods and strategy, even more than particular wagers, because there are hundreds of props at major betting operators like DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM and PointsBet.

The gambling approach to The McGregor vs. Cowboy Fight

Round One: Forget the moneyline for McGregor backers. He is laying in the vicinity of +300 (3-to-1) at the books. Wagering $300 to win $100? Not sexy. There are fertile opportunities for him in the prop field.

Round Two: Absolutely play the win line if you like Cerrone, at returns averaging roughly +250. Props are fine to supplement, but this is like taking the win line at the Kentucky Derby on a 5-2 pick. If you like this, hit the win-line hard and place less on the props (which would resemble the exactas and trifectas of the horse-racing world). Nothing frustrates a bettor more than having the right selection, but betting it incorrectly.

Round Three: Narrow the focus. Books have an enticing prop menu. But you can’t get lost in them, diverting the bankroll. There are numerous victory and method props, over/under and knockout rounds, even the unlikely draw. But they can overlap. Know where you have aimed the money.

Round Four: Determine your operation. A safe build-out can start from picking two-round group packages for when the bout ends. A rounds bet or method prop can be added. Or do you want to go for a slam, betting one prop heavy in search of the big score? Know how much of the landscape you want to travel.

Round Five: The accent piece. Seek a strange angle and place a small bet. McGregor has only lost twice in the UFC. But both times were by submission. Including his last fight. There are long odds on a submission finish in this fight because both fighters are excellent strikers. That’s why the submission prop pays well.

Honorable Mention: Holly Holm and Raquel Pennington fight on the undercard in a rematch of a previous split decision victory by Holm. The books back a long battle, probably a decision. Any fighter on the moneyline at DraftKings (at -137 for Holm, + 110 for Pennington) is not a bad play. Odds of a knockout are in the range of +1000 (10-to-1) on both sides.

Odds on UFC 246

DraftKings Sportsbook

The Line: McGregor -315, Cerrone +250

The over-under for the fight is 1.5 rounds, which is also reflected in the range-of-finish props. Bettors lay +150 if the fight ends inside of two rounds. The payout is +375 for rounds 3-4 and a draw is +5000.

Extending to individual fighters, McGregor’s winning rounds range from +175 in round one to +2500 in the fifth. Cerrone also pays 25-1 in round 5 but would return 11-1 for a first-round victory. Translation: McGregor will try to and win early and if Cerrone turns the tables, it will pay handsomely.

A McGregor win inside of two rounds is -115 but a KO in round two pays +650. Victory for him in the round 3-4 package is worth +650, but Round 3 is +1500 and Round 4 is +1900.

For Cerrone backers, individual rounds knockouts return from 22-1-50-1 from rounds 1-5. Submissions return 22-1 to 40-1, depending upon the round.

FanDuel Sportsbook

The line: McGregor -290, Cerrone +220

The prop line suggests an early McGregor knockout, at -210.

McGregor on points is +1000 and a submission is +3200. Cerrone returns +700 for a knockout, +950 for a decision and +700 for a submission.

McGregor’s range of knockout victories returns +175 for Round 1 up to +2900 for Round 5. Cerrone’s payouts are +2400 for the opening round and +5500 for a stoppage in Round 5. Cerrone also pays +5500 for a submission triumph in Round 5.

Will the fight go the distance? Yes is +440 and the bettor would not have to sweat out who wins.

BetMGM

The line: McGregor -334, Cerrone +260

McGregor’s victory spectrum ranges from +170 in Round 1 to +2200 in the fifth.

Cerrone has a similar payout, +2500, for a round-five win. The major difference between them is early, where Cerrone would return +1100 for a first-round victory.

This is a unique menu because it offers half-rounds. The over-under hits the even-money area at 1.5 rounds. That would pay +100 for the over and -121 for the under.

As the rounds progress, the expected stoppage changes the numbers to over 2.5 rounds at +187 and under at -250. Want to try 3.5 rounds? That’s +240 for the over and -358 for the under. Over 4.5 rounds and a full fight exceed +400 on the over and -500 and -589 on the under. Translation: the appeal for the under dies after the first round.

PointsBet

The line: McGregor -286, Cerrone +230

Ufc Fight Odds 246 Payouts

Some sweet spots for McGregor are specific round props. McGregor knockout victories in Round 3 (+ 750) and Round 4 (+1200) provide a 10-minute window for McGregor to provide a good return. Putting money on EACH of the rounds and taking a smaller payout is a reasonable way to go for anyone believing in a mid-rounds stoppage for McGregor.

Cerrone backers would receive +750 for a knockout win, +500 for a submission and +950 for a points verdict. Cowboy bettors would score a boatload, +8000, should Cerrone submit McGregor during the fifth round.

This article was originally posted Tuesday. Odds are subject to change. For current odds, click the sportsbook links above.

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On Saturday, January 18th, the UFC will be live from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, for UFC 246 also known as UFC 246: McGregor vs Cowboy. This PPV event features the return of Conor McGregor as he takes on the popular Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone.

However, before we can dive into the headline fight of the PPV, and the rest of the main card, we must carefully examine the prelim fights first. This portion of the card features a main event of Roxanne Modafferi taking the undefeated Maycee Barber in a Top 10 women’s flyweight fight.

In total, there are eight prelim bouts scheduled for UFC 246. The early batch of prelim fights begins at 6:15 PM ET and the second batch of prelim fights, with the Barber vs Modafferi bout, begins at 8 PM ET. All of the prelim bouts will be televised on ESPN and ESPN+.

Let’s step inside the betting octagon to look at these UFC 246 odds via multiple UFC betting sites, identify potential value or upsets, and KO our predictions.

History will be made this Saturday at #UFC246!! ?? ? pic.twitter.com/6VrwbjlEwH

— UFC Europe (@UFCEurope) January 14, 2020

Sabina Mazo (7-1) vs J.J. Aldrich (8-3)

  • Sabina Mazo (-105)
  • J. Aldrich (-115)
  • Over (-380)/Under (+315) 2.5 rounds

Mazo comes in as the slight underdog for this bout. She will be stepping inside the octagon for the third time in her career and is 1-1 so far. Mazo was a former LFA champ and undefeated heading into the UFC.

Unfortunately, she lost her debut fight in March 2019. However, Mazo bounced back in her next fight by defeating Shana Dobson via unanimous decision.

Aldrich will be appearing in her 7th UFC fight when she steps inside the octagon on Saturday. Currently, Aldrich is 4-2 with the UFC and won her last fight in October via unanimous decision.

After losing her debut bout in December 2016, Aldrich won three in a row before losing via TKO to Maycee Barber in March 2019.

This Fight Will Go the Distance

The Over/Under is listed at 2.5 rounds and I believe it will safely hit the Over (-380). Combined, these two women have 13 fights go the distance out of 19 total fights. For Mazo, she’s gone to four straight decisions. Aldrich has gone the distance in six of her last seven bouts.

5Dimes has Aldrich winning this fight via decision at +160 odds and Mazo at +157 odds. When going the distance, Mazo is 5-1 and Aldrich is 6-1. Both women fare well when seeing the judges.

For this fight, I like Mazo to win. I believe she has the length and can do some damage with heir jabs and kicks. She also has enough skills on the mat to weather any offense from Aldrich. I’m taking Mazo to win via unanimous decision due to a higher volume of strikes connecting.

UFC Bet: Mazo vs. Aldrich

Sabina Mazo (-105), Over 2.5 rounds (-380), Mazo wins via decision (+157)

Brian Kelleher (19-10) vs Ode Osbourne (8-2)

  • Brian Kelleher (+120)
  • Ode Osbourne (-140)
  • Over (-145)/Under (+125) 1.5 rounds

Kelleher enters this contest as the underdog despite it being his 7th UFC fight. Currently, Kelleher is 3-3 inside the octagon, but has dropped his last two fights in a row. Additionally, he hasn’t fought in 13 months due to injury so there is concern over potential rustiness.

Osbourne has won four straight fights including his appearance on DWCS last July. He defeated Villarreal via 1st round submission and earned a UFC contract. This will be his octagon debut.

Seven of his eight pro wins have come via stoppage with four by way of submission. Six of his eight wins have come via 1st round stoppage including his last four fights in a row.

Can Osbourne Finish off Kelleher in the 1st Round?

Osbourne certainly has the skills to win this fight in short order. Not only is he a proven striker, but he has a strong ground game that could come in handy if his takedown defense is inconsistent. Additionally, he needs to make sure he doesn’t walk into any haymakers because he has a tendency to keep his hands down low.

Odds

I think with Kelleher’s aggression and Osbourne’s striking, this fight should finish Under 1.5 rounds (+125). I also believe that it will be Osbourne picking up the big win on Saturday. Osbourne is getting odds of +220 to win via submission and +525 to win via TKO/KO. I like both of these prop bets.

I’m taking Osbourne to win this fight via submission. Kelleher has six submission losses in his career. If Osbourne can get this fight to the ground early then he will finish off Kelleher in the 1st round.

UFC Bet: Osbourne vs Kelleher

Ode Osbourne (-140), Under 1.5 rounds (+125), Osbourne wins via Submission (+220)

Tim Elliott (15-9-1) vs Askar Askarov (10-0-1)

  • Tim Elliott (+115)
  • Askar Askarov (-135)
  • Over (-140)/Under (+120) 2.5 rounds

Since joining the UFC in December 2016, Elliott has alternated between wins and losses. His octagon record is 3-3 and he’s coming off a submission loss last October to Figueiredo. That’s the 4th submission loss of his career.

Nine of his 15 pro wins have come via stoppage with six by way of submission. 11 of his 25 pro fights have gone the distance where he’s 6-4-1.

Askarov, the former ACB flyweight champ, is a slight betting favorite as he makes his second trip inside the octagon in his career. His debut was last September and it ended in a split draw against Brandon Moreno. Prior to that contest, Askarov had won all 10 of his pro fights with seven victories by way of submission.

Will This Fight Go the Distance?

In his last fight, Askarov took on Brandon Moreno and escaped with a split draw. I think that’s why these odds are low and the O/U is high. In reality, this fight should not see the scorecards as Askarov has won 10 of his 11 pro fights inside the distance.

5Dimes has odds listing the fight ending inside the distance at -115 odds. I believe that prop offers solid betting value. Additionally, I don’t see this fight even touching the 3rd round, so take the Under 2.5 rounds at +120 odds.

As for the winner of the fight, I like Askarov to win this contest pretty easily. I believe Elliott is not as good as Moreno and Askarov should be able to get Elliott to the mat where he will lock in a submission hold.

Askarov winning by submission has a line of +240 and his odds to win inside the distance is listed at +178. Both of these prop bets offer great betting value.

Weight reduction is successful ??☝? @ufcpic.twitter.com/wtu6LnMPDl

— Askar Askarov (@askar_mma) January 13, 2020

UFC Bet: Askarov vs Elliot

Askar Askarov (-135), Under 2.5 rounds (+120), Askarov via submission (+240), Askarov inside the distance (+178)

Aleksa Camur (5-0) vs Justin Ledet (9-2)

  • Aleksa Camur (-120)
  • Justin Ledet (+100)
  • Over (-120)/Under (+100) 2.5 rounds

Ufc Fight Odds 246 Ufc

This is Ledet’s first fight in nearly a year due to an injury. His last bout came in February 2019 when he lost to Johnny Walker via TKO in 15 seconds. It was the first TKO/KO loss of his career and his second straight defeat.

Seven of his nine wins have come via stoppage with five victories by way of submission. Ledet is 3-2 inside the octagon, but an injury and his first ever TKO/KO loss raises a lot of eyebrows.

Camur is undefeated coming into his UFC debut. He earned a contract after winning via 2nd round TKO on DWCS last July. All five of Camur’s wins have come via TKO/KO. Additionally, three of the five wins have come in the 1st round.

This Fight Has TKO Written All over It

Despite Ledet having five submission wins, he is a decent striker and will have a reach advantage in this fight. With that said, Camur has the striking advantage as he is a former Golden Gloves fighter.

I see this fight finishing inside the distance (-130) odds, which has good value. I also see it going under 2.5 rounds (+100), which also offers betting value. Camur winning via TKO/KO is listed at +210 odds with 5Dimes and I really like that wager as well.

I believe Camur will defend any takedown attempts and eventually rock Ledet in this fight. He will either score the outright KO or earn a TKO before the 2nd round concludes. Camur is on his way up the food chain while Ledet appears to be falling fast.

UFC Bet: Camur vs Ledet

Aleksa Camur (-120), Under 2.5 rounds (+100), Fight doesn’t go the distance (-130), Camur wins via TKO (+210)

Nasrat Haqparast (11-2) vs Drew Dober (21-9)

  • Nasrat Haqparast (-325)
  • Drew Dober (+265)
  • Over (-185)/Under (+160) 2.5 rounds

Depending on the MMA betting site, Nasrat comes into this fight as either the 2nd or 3rd biggest betting favorite on the entire UFC 246 card. After losing his UFC debut in October 2017, Nasrat has won three straight fights including his last bout via KO over Silva in August 2019.

Nine of his 11 pro wins have come via TKO/KO. He’s taking on Dober who’s a gritty veteran with a well-rounded fight game.

Dober has won four of his last five fights including a 1st round TKO over Marco Polo Reyes last June. He’s been with the UFC since the fall of 2013 and has an octagon record of 7-5 with 1 NC. 14 of his 21 pro wins have come via stoppage with eight by way of TKO/KO.

Could Be a Fight of the Night Candidate

If Dober obliges Nasrat in a standup fight then this contest could earn a fight night bonus due to the fireworks that will be popping off inside the octagon. Both men enjoy a good striking contest, but it does favor Nasrat.

Haqparast has better striking skills and striking defense. Additionally, he’s quicker to the punch with better combos and more power. Dober’s best bet is to get this fight to the mat. Unfortunately, I don’t believe he will be able to navigate safely through the onslaught of strikes in order to get a takedown.

I like Haqparast to win this fight. However, I’m not sure he will get the TKO/KO win. Two of his three UFC fights have gone the distance and Dober is tough enough to go all three rounds. He’s only suffered one knockout in his 31 fight career.

The smart play is to take the Over 2.5 rounds (-185) and for the fight to go to decision at -165 odds. With that in mind, I like Haqparast to win via decision at -105 odds. If you are looking for a longshot pick in this fight then take Dober to win via submission at +1915 odds. He has six submission wins and Nasrat has lost once via submission.

UFC 246: Nasrat Haqparast: The Forgotten Prospect Who Must Reignite His Flame

By @james_lee1998#UFC246https://t.co/jR0pkpANV3 via @UFC21

— FightPost (@UFC21) January 13, 2020

UFC Bet: Haqparast vs Dober

Nasrat Haqparast (-325), Over 2.5 rounds (-185), Fight goes to decision (-165), Nasrat Haqparast wins via decision (-105)

Sodiq Yusuff (10-1) vs Andre Fili (20-6)

  • Sodiq Yusuff (-130)
  • Andre Fili (+110)
  • Over (-120)/Under (+100) 2.5 rounds

Andre Fili comes into this contest on a two fight win streak including solid wins over Myles Jury and Sheymon Moraes. He’s been with the UFC since 2013 and has gone 8-5 in the octagon. 12 of his 12 pro wins have come via stoppage with nine by way of TKO/KO.

Yusuff is on a five fight win streak including going 3-0 inside the octagon. He joined the UFC in 2018 and also defeated Sheymon Moraes last year. Six of his 10 pro wins have come via TKO/KO. His other four wins have come via decision.

Winner Will Move into Top 15 for Featherweight Division

There’s a lot riding on every fight, but this one will most likely give the victor a boost up into the Top 15 for the featherweight division. With both men wanting bigger fights, this weekend’s matchup will be a stepping stone for the winner to get ranked opponents in 2020.

Fili has a two inch height and a three inch reach advantage, which could come in handy during what should be a striking contest.

I like what I’ve seen from Yusuff since joining the UFC. Two of his three wins have come via 1st round TKO/KO. If Fili isn’t careful then he could be the third 1st round victim.

Despite the reach advantage, I believe Yusuff is more powerful and has a better overall striking arsenal. I believe Yusuff is going to win this fight, but I’m not sure if he can get it done inside the distance. The safe play is taking this fight to go the full three rounds (+100).

Six of Fili’s last seven fights have gone the distance. Yusuff has gone the distance in four of his 11 pro fights including twice in the UFC if you also count his DWTNCS appearance. Yususff is 4-0 in decision fights while Fili is 8-2.

I’m taking Yusuff to win this fight via decision (+335). Although, I wouldn’t be surprised if he scored a TKO/KO inside the distance (+185).

“I know for sure we got a good chance of getting Fight of the Night.' – @Super_Sodiq Yusuff believes that him and Andre Fili are going to put on a performance to be remembered. #UFC246

Read the full feature with Yusuff on https://t.co/fdV4RnsUPw ⤵️:https://t.co/V0NOLI6xTv

— UFC News (@UFCNews) January 14, 2020

UFC Bet: Yusuff vs Fili

Ufc Fight Odds 257

Sodiq Yusuff (-130), Over 2.5 rounds (-120), Fight goes the distance (+100), Yusuff wins via decision (+335)

Maycee Barber (8-0) vs Roxanne Modafferi (23-16)

  • Maycee Barber (-900)
  • Roxanne Modafferi (+600)
  • Over (-135)/Under (+115) 1.5 rounds

Roxanne Modafferi is the biggest underdog for the entire UFC 246 card. Although ranked 7th in the women’s flyweight division, online betting sites view her as a longshot to win on Saturday.

Modafferi has alternated between wins and losses over the last three years. She dropped her last bout which was against Jennifer Maia. Modafferi lost via unanimous decision seven months ago. Currently, she’s 2-3 inside the octagon, but does have a big win over Antonina Shevchenko.

In 39 pro fights, Modafferi has gone the distance in 26 of them. Her record is 14-12 in those contests. Four of her last five fights have gone the distance.

Maycee Barber is the largest betting favorite on this card as she triples the next biggest favorite. The 21 year old is an MMA prodigy as she’s quickly dispatched solid veterans in her three UFC fights. Barber has already defeated Cifers, Aldrich and Robertson as she’s moved up to 9th in the division.

Ufc Fight Odds 246 Results

All three of her UFC wins have come via TKO. She’s won four straight fights via TKO and five in her career. Barber has stopped seven of her eight opponents.

Can Modafferi Derail the Barber Express?

Modafferi admitted that this matchup came out of nowhere. Barber wasn’t on the radar until the UFC offered her the fight. Although she doesn’t have any bad feelings towards Barber, Modafferi is very motivated to derail the hype train:

“I don’t have a desire to fight anybody in particular. I’m more than willing to derail that hype train as I have done in the past with Antonina Shevchenko and a few other fighters. I think it is going to be exciting, both pressure fighters, I think it is going to be a great entertaining fight. I don’t underestimate her either, she is young, seems very well-rounded and strong. I’m stoked for this fight.”

I think Modafferi is a tough fighter and can hang with Barber standing up or on the mat. However, I think Barber is a better fight even at the ripe age of 21 years old. She’s shown a knack for finishing off veteran fighters and I believe she will do the same in this contest.

Barber’s odds of -900 offers no value at all. Fortunately, there are some prop bets for this fight that offer some value. For starters, I do not see this fight going the distance (-260). I believe that these are two aggressive fighters who will go for the finish.

I like this fight to go over 1.5 rounds (-135) as Modafferi is too much of a veteran to get caught in the 1st round. Additionally, Barber has only won three of eight fights in Under 1.5 rounds.

Lastly, since I believe Barber will win inside the distance it’s most likely going to come from a TKO/KO (-165). She’s won four straight fights via TKO/KO and has five for her career. I believe she will rock Modafferi in the 2nd round and finish her off before the round ends.

2020 is going to be a big year for Barber as the hype train picks up more steam after a solid win over Modafferi this weekend. Look for Barber to flirt with a Top 5 ranking and a huge PPV fight at some point in 2020.

Ben Askren predicts that Maycee Barber will be flyweight champ by 2021 https://t.co/gtdtLCOrJdpic.twitter.com/nQfGWByp0Q

— Women's MMA Rankings (@WMMARankings) January 8, 2020

UFC Bet: Barber vs Modafferi

Maycee Barber (-900), Over 1.5 rounds (-135), Fight doesn’t go the distance (-260), Barber wins via TKO/KO (-165)

Final Thoughts on UFC 246’s Preliminary Card

There are some exciting matchups on the UFC 246 prelim card, but nothing that will really change the landscape of the UFC other than a Maycee Barber win. If she scores another TKO/KO victory then 2020 could be a huge year for the breakout star.

In reality, this PPV event is all about the main card as it features the return of Conor McGregor as he takes on the super popular Donald Cerrone.

As for betting on UFC 246, there’s plenty of value in the prelim fights. From moneylines and Over/Unders to numerous different prop bets, those of you placing bets on UFC 246 will have numerous opportunities to win some money.

Ufc 246 Fight Odds

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