Aaron Wise won on the PGA Tour in Dallas and then Justin Rose in Fort Worth on Sunday. You noticing a bit of a name trend there?
Rose shot a final-round 64 at Colonial on Sunday to finish at 20 under and beat out Brooks Koepka by three for Rose's first career win at the Fort Worth Invitational. He could have tied the 2010 tournament record of 259 but bogeyed the 72nd hole. It was the ninth career PGA Tour victory for Rose and second this year - he also took the World Golf Championships-HSBC Champions in Shanghai back at the start of the season (Koepka was runner-up in that too). He is the fifth player with multiple wins this season.
What's somewhat ironic about Sunday's victory was that Rose didn't even want to play the Fort Worth Invitational - he wanted to play the flagship event on the European Tour, the BMW PGA Championship -- but essentially had to per PGA Tour rules in order to keep his card. Perhaps the most interesting golfer at Colonial, though, was Kevin Na. He blistered the course with a 62 in Round 1 and tied the course record with a 61 in the fourth round. It's just that he struggled in the middle rounds at 73-70 and finished fourth at 14 under.
My winning choice was Matt Kuchar, but he finished T32 largely due to a second-round 73. I may have been a week premature on Kuchar, as I'll explain shortly. Jordan Spieth was the +900 favorite but again disappointed in his hometown area with a T32.
That is the last time that consecutive PGA Tour events were played on the same course. In a year filled with history, most of it bad, the PGA Tour will make some this week with the Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village Golf Club just outside of Columbus, Ohio. Memorial Tournament 2018 Odds as Golf punter Dave Tindall looks at Betfair's odds on the First-Round leader market. Dave Tindall picks out three players to get onside early at this week's Memorial.
Before I get to this week's Memorial Tournament, there was an interesting report last week from Reuters about the potential of a 'World Golf Series.' That would consist of 15-20 tournaments worldwide each with a whopping purse of $20 million thanks to several big-name sponsors. The British-based World Golf Group has proposed the series. I'm not sure this will get off the ground only because both the PGA and European Tours have pretty strict rules for keeping your card. In the 1990s, Greg Norman proposed a similar tour, and the PGA Tour said it would remove memberships of any players who signed up for it.
There are probably five tiers of events on the PGA Tour currently. You have Tier 1, which are the four majors. Then Tier 2, the World Golf Championship events. Then Tier 3 is the Players Championship, Tour Championship, FedEx Cup playoff. Tier 4 is made up of five invitationals, which limit the field to 120 and offer a bigger purse and more perks for a win. The Memorial Tournament is one of those (Tier 5 is everything else).
The Memorial always gets a strong field because: 1) It's hosted by Jack Nicklaus; 2) It's played at the world-renowned Muirfield Village Golf Club outside Columbus, Ohio (where Nicklaus was born and raised and starred at Ohio State; the course also has hosted the Ryder Cup and Presidents Cup); and 3) Many guys use it as the final warmup for the U.S. Open. Eight of the world's Top 10 are set to play this week as well as five-time champion Tiger Woods for the first time since 2015. That year he shot a third-round 85, still his worst-ever score as a pro.
Muirfield Village is tough but fair, so you will surely need to score double-digits under par to win. It's a par 72 measuring almost 7,400 yards. You won't often see a player win a tournament with a third-round 77, but Jason Dufner did in 2017. He was four back entering Sunday but shot a 68 to finish at 13-under 275, three shots ahead of Rickie Fowler and Anirban Lahiri. No player has repeated here since Tiger won his third straight in 2001.
Golf Odds: Memorial Tournament Favorites
Dustin Johnson and Jason Day are both +1200. DJ was 17th at the Players Championship last time out and lost his world No. 1 ranking. He missed the cut here last year but was third in 2016. Day is pseudo-local now as his wife is from the area. The course doesn't seem to suit him well, though, with nary a Top 10 in his career at Muirfield.
Rose is +1400 to be the first player to win back-to-back this season. Thomas, who tees it up as the world No. 1 for the first time, is also +1400 as is Rory McIlroy. Jordan Spieth is +1600 and Tiger +2000. Rose won here in 2010 and was second in both 2015 and 2008. Thomas missed the cut here in 2015-16 but was fourth last year. McIlroy finished second at the BMW PGA Championship last week and was fourth here in his last visit in 2016. Spieth's best result at Muirfield is third in 2015.
Dufner is +6000 to win again.
Golf Odds: Memorial Tournament Picks
For a Top 10, I'll go Kuchar (+275), who has a win here (2013) and five other Top-8 finishes since 2009, McIlroy (+105) and Marc Leishman (+275). Tiger is +200 for one and I'm not loving that.
For top American, go Kuchar at +2000. Head-to-head, like Adam Scott (-110) over Phil Mickelson (-120), Leishman (-130) over Kuchar (even), Bubba Watson (-110) over Patrick Reed (-120), Henrik Stenson (-115) over Hideki Matsuyama (-115), Johnson (-120) over Day (-110), and McIlroy (-115) over Rose (-115).
I was tempted to pick Kuchar again, but let's go Leishman at +3500. He comes off a runner-up at the Byron Nelson and hasn't been worse than T15 his past three trips here with a scoring average of 69.67.
Two of our top experts both Indian Cowboy and Raphael Esparza offer their expert golf picks every week of the season. Doc's Sports is offering $60 worth of member's picks absolutely free - no obligation, no sales people - you don't even have to enter credit card information. You can use this $60 credit any way you please for any handicapper and any sport on Doc's Sports list of expert sports handicappers. Get $60 worth of premium members' picks free .
Read more articles by Alan Matthews
It was another thrilling finish to a PGA event this past weekend, even though it wasn't broadcast live to golf fans everywhere. Justin Thomas coughed up a three-shot lead with three to go which just can't happen if you are a consensus top golfer in the world, and how he reacts to that disappointment this week will be interesting.
Being that it is at the exact same course, Thomas could end up going the redemption route where he tries to blitz the track and run over the field, or, he could end up being too emotionally spent from that defeat and ultimately become a non-factor. I'd lean more to the latter, which means that as one of the pre-tournament favorites, Justin Thomas (+950) just won't be making the card.
Collin Morikawa was the one who took down JT in that playoff, and for a guy that averaged around +3000 last week, to see his number at +2200 this week in a much tougher field is another guy where next to nothing in value is to be had.
That's the interesting thing about consecutive events at the same track, because chances are plenty of the market will heavily weigh what they saw last, and prices have already been slightly skewed on those guys that were in the mix on Sunday. That's not to say guys like Thomas, Hovland, or Morikawa can't have good weeks again this week, but just remember that all three of their prices were points higher in a weaker field a week ago.
Hopefully this ends up being the first time we do get consecutive events at the same track on the PGA Tour, because the conundrums it brings about in the typical handicapping process is a little tougher to deal with.
Yet, the benefit of this week being at Muirfield Village again is this course preview section was already covered in last week's piece. It's still a course that's heavily weighed towards strong approach games and avoiding that thick rough, something that will be even longer this week as the grounds crew lets it grow.
What wasn't touched on last week that is specific to the Memorial Tournament is that unless you are a current or future World Golf Hall of Fame member, chances are you aren't going to have multiple Memorial Tournament wins on your career resume. Since
Jack Nicklaus
started hosting this event in 1976, only six players – Jack Nicklaus, Hale Irwin, Tom Watson, Greg Norman, Tiger Woods, and Kenny Perry – have multiple Memorial wins to their credit, and all but Perry are (or will be) Hall of Fame members.That history was a small part of the reason behind backing Cantlay last week rather than this week, although who knows how the rest of his career plays out regarding HOF status. Other recent winners like Bryson Dechambeau (2018), Hideki Matsuyama (2014), Matt Kuchar (2013), and Justin Rose (2010) are somewhere in those HOF conversations – present or future – as well, but you won't find those names making the card this week.
Dechambeau (+950) and Thomas (+1050) are the consensus top two golfers on the board, followed by Rory McIlroy (+1300) and Patrick Cantlay (+1650).
Beyond that are the names of Dustin Johnson (+1850), Jon Rahm (+2000), Collin Morikawa (+2200), Xander Schauffele (+2200), Webb Simpson (+2200), Viktor Hovland (+2500), Tiger Woods (+2600), Brooks Koepka (+2800), and Hideki Matsuyama (+2800) all below the +3000 threshold.
That list goes to show you just how deep this field is this week.
Tiger returning to action this week is one of the more popular story lines for the event, and as a five-time winner of the Memorial, he's sure going to get plenty of love from the course history buffs in the market. But outside of that charity match, this is his first competitive event in months, and who knows what kind of form he brings into Ohio this week.
There is no denying he knows this course very well, but if he physically isn't hitting the shots where they need to be, all that course knowledge isn't going to help bettors cash those outright tickets. Yet another name that it's probably better to bypass this week, at least for a few days to see what shape his swing is in.
But with plenty of talented names not even mentioned yet, this week's piece is going to take a few liberties with the notion of guys being “mid-range” or “long shots”. Hopefully these three names end up performing well enough where we can at least get a bit of a sweat going on Sunday, something that hasn't really been the case the past couple of weeks.
Remember, playing well at Muirfield Village last week is great, and should be incorporated into the handicapping process, but it shouldn't be the be all, end all either. Trying to find that balance has been quite the challenge in preparation of this article for this week's tournament, but let's try to cash another winner in 2020.
Simpson has already been kind to the bankroll this year with his win at the Phoenix Open in the pre-shutdown days, and on a course where the approach game should be weighed the heaviest, Simpson is right there among the best of the best in that regard. He ranks 5th on Tour in SG: Approach this season, as he gained better than a stroke per event in that category in his last two starts – one of which was a victory.
Simpson's course history is likely going to make him one of the forgotten players among those sub-+3000 guys, as he hasn't played here since 2017 when he finished 67th. Prior to that, there were finishes of 8th and 11th and three missed cuts in five starts going back to 2010.
None of that should be all that deterring though given he's a much different player these days than he was much earlier in his career, and two Top 10's in three starts since the restart isn't anything to smirk at. Simpson might not be the flashiest name among those at the top, but as long as he does what he does – be ultra consistent and accurate with his irons – he should find a way to be in the conversation on Sunday.
Woodland is a name that played here last week and his T5 finish will have some arguing that he could fall into that “overvalued” range based on that result. Obviously that's possible, but when he finished the tournament with rounds of 68-66-69 from Friday on, it's hard to ignore that form for a guy who's overall strength is in the approach game.
The reigning US Open champ is a guy that could have been right in the mix last week had a poor first round not put him in too deep of a hole, and with the way he's been putting since the restart – gained at least 0.60 strokes putting in all four starts – a hot putter could be what separates him from the pack this week.
Woodland had little issue with these greens last week with a +1.84 SG: Putting number, and if that continues to hold steady and some more consistency is found in the long game – which is per usual for Woodland – a near 50/1 price tag should be giving off some Sunday perspiration.
Day lives in Ohio and is a member at Muirfield Village, so if you want someone who knows the course well regardless of course history he is your man. All of that comfort has seen Day's results at the Memorial be not up to par for his standards - only one Top 20 in nine starts since 2010 – and a lot of that may have to do with all the distractions that can come in a typical week playing at home throughout the course of a season. But spending two straight weeks at home and playing golf here should eliminate all of those worries and free him up to go pin seeking when he can this week.
Statistically, Day's approach game hasn't been what it was at the height of his playing powers a few years ago, but there are just too many tiny advantages built into this week for Day not to like his chances. He knows the course extremely well, is sleeping in his own bed still, and he played well here last week -T7 – knowing he left quite a few shots on the golf course as well.
For a guy that's openly stated that getting back to that #1 world ranking is one of his main goals, beating a field as deep as this one would go a long way in doing so, and the home field advantage he's got here is something that I believe plays much better with consecutive weeks at the venue.
Identical price to last week's play of Cantlay over Thomas, and while that didn't end up getting there, I'm now getting the #1 player in the world at the same price. That in itself suggests to me how much recency bias there is floating around on JT right now, and as I mentioned in the opening, I do lean towards him being emotionally drained after coughing up the victory on those final three holes last week.
Conversely, Rory hasn't really done a whole lot of “Rory things” since golf returned, as he's been solid -finishes of 32nd, 41st, and 11th – but not great. McIlroy went with two weeks off to regroup/rest up for this event and the FedEx Cup stretch run to come, and that's probably going to end up being a good thing for his results going forward.
I do wish that it didn't look like I was picking on Thomas these past two weeks because his game is spectacular as one of the best in the world, but the price seemingly being heavily influenced by what just happened has me having no problem with having a McIlroy ticket at plus-money here. That's a rarity in itself, and win or lose this week, this is a bet that should likely have positive expected value if it was offered each week. Here's hoping that it's the right side this week.
Golf betting has gained much more exposure and interest in the past few years, and with plenty of plus-money prices littered throughout the various forms of golf wagers, the chance for bigger scores is part of the reason behind that increased popularity.
Sportsbooks ensure that there are no shortage of wagering options on golf tournaments every week, and it isn't all about picking the winner. Grabbing the outright winner of a golf tournament is the best way to get that 'big score' but it's also the hardest wager to cash. After all, a typical professional golf tournament has a field of 140+ different players to consider.
Most golf odds are listed in the fractional format – 10/1 on Dustin Johnson for example – and in that particular case you would multiply the amount bet by that first number to project your winnings. So a $100 bet on DJ to win that particular event would win you $1000.
If you are more comfortable with the American version of odds listings that you typically see across the other major North American sports – ie +1000 – these numbers are easily convertible. Online and app based books may already have that option built in, but the easiest way to do it yourself is to add two zeros to the first number in the fraction. So a 10/1 price on DJ converts to +1000 in that format.